Despite El Nino conditions, the monsoon is projected to be "normal" at 96%, according to IMD.
NEW DELHI: The IMD stated on Tuesday that the monsoon is anticipated to be "normal," with a 49% possibility of "normal to above normal" rainfall during the months of June and September. This prediction comes a day after a private weather forecaster, Skymet, projected a "below normal" monsoon this year in India.
As stated in the monsoon forecast released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), "the forecast based on both dynamical and statistical models suggests that quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of 5%."
The projection falls between 96 and 104% of the LPA, which is the low end of the typical range. According to IMD, based on data from 1971 to 2020, the country is predicted to see 83.5 cm of rainfall throughout the season (June to September), compared to a normal of 87 cm. In any given year, there is a about 67% climatological (normal) possibility of "normal to above normal" rainfall.
Despite evolving El Nino conditions (unusual warming of the surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean), which is typically associated with weak monsoon rainfall, the 2023 monsoon season is projected to be normal, as predicted. However, according to M Mohapatra, director general of the IMD, not all El Nino years had bad precipitation; in fact, in 40% of these years, rainfall was normal to above average.
Six of the 15 El Nino years between 1951 and 2022, according to statistics supplied by IMD, saw normal to above-average rainfall. However, the met department warned that the potential emergence of El Nino conditions around July could have an impact on the monsoon during the second half of the season (August–September).
Asked whether any private forecaster is allowed to issue monsoon forecasts as it sometimes creates confusion, Mohapatra said that the IMD is the globally recognized nodal weather agency of India and is part of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as one of the 193 member countries and, therefore, people should believe in the forecast of official forecaster.
"Please trust the IMD, whose forecast is accountable in addition to being wise, reasonable, and timely. Without naming any names, he said, "There will be an issue (in terms of trustworthiness) if anyone (commercial agency) produces a forecast without any accountability.
In a statement outlining the monsoon forecast for 2023, Mohapatra emphasised that rainfall during the southwest (summer) monsoon season (June to September) across the nation is most likely to be normal, with the highest probability among all other categories of 35% compared to the climatological probability of 33%.
Geographically speaking, during the summer monsoon season, "normal to below-normal" rainfall is predicted over portions of northwest India, west-central, portions of Gujarat and Maharashtra, and the northeast regions, whereas "normal" rainfall is likely over many portions of the peninsular region, adjacent to the east-central, east, and northeast areas, as well as some portions of northwest India.
